{"id":8508,"date":"2026-05-04T16:17:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T19:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ponddeshpande.ca\/?p=8508"},"modified":"2026-05-07T15:11:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-07T18:11:22","slug":"shaping-our-provinces-future-pisa-levels-and-new-brunswicks-workforce-readiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ponddeshpande.ca\/fr\/w4s\/shaping-our-provinces-future-pisa-levels-and-new-brunswicks-workforce-readiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Shaping our Province\u2019s Future \u2013 PISA Levels and New Brunswick\u2019s Workforce Readiness"},"content":{"rendered":"

Authors:<\/strong> Sydney Campbell, Herb Emery<\/p>\n

The PISA proficiency levels of 15-year-olds inform us which jobs New Brunswick\u2019s youth will be capable of filling, and which will remain out of reach.\u00a0 These students are approaching the end of compulsory education, so their literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving skills are associated with the successful transition into post-secondary education, training, or stable employment. Low numeracy and literacy skills leave young people vulnerable to unemployment, precarious work, and long-term poverty. Low literacy and numeracy are also a problem for the province, which is forecasted to face over 130,000 job openings, with 63% requiring post-secondary credentials and continued trainingi<\/sup>. If youth are not prepared to fill those roles, labour shortages in already strained sectors like healthcare, education, and public administration will deepen.<\/p>\n

Skills, scores, and what comes next<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

PISA proficiency levels show us not just how students perform in school, but where they are likely to end up in the labour market. Students performing at Level 3 or higher are generally considered ready for the demands of post-secondary education and employment. They can plan, interpret, problem-solve, compare viewpoints, and manage increasingly complex tasks. These are the skills required for jobs that offer stability, higher wages, and upward mobilityii<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Students at Level 2 meet the minimum baseline needed to function in modern society. They can identify main ideas, make basic inferences, and complete straightforward tasks. These students may be able to access stable employment but are often limited to lower-skilled occupations with fewer opportunities for advancementiii<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

Students below Level 2 are considered highly vulnerable. They struggle to follow basic instructions, engage with simple texts, and solve routine problems. In practical terms, this means they are functionally illiterate or innumerate in ways that make both further education and workforce participation significantly harder. These students are far more likely to be funneled into low-paid, precarious work with little security or mobilityiv<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

PISA data tells us that New Brunswick has one of the weakest literacy profiles in Canada. The province has the lowest average reading performance nationally, with a mean reading score of 469, and nearly one-third of students performing at Level 1 or belowv<\/sup>. This means a significant share of youth are entering adulthood already without the skills to be successful.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
NB mean reading score<\/td>\nStudents at Level 1 or below<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0469 Lowest in Canada<\/td>\n~1 in 3 Functionally illiterate\/innumerate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

The workforce gap hiding in plain sight<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The PISA proficiency levels help reveal what sectors of the workforce New Brunswick students are being prepared, or unprepared, to enter.<\/p>\n

Students performing at Level 3 and above possess the literacy and numeracy skills needed to continue into college, university, apprenticeships, and professional training. These students can identify patterns, reflect critically, compare viewpoints, and solve increasingly complex problems. They are positioned to move into occupations that require specialization and continued education \u2013 fields like healthcare, education, business administration, government, engineering, and STEM. These are exactly the areas where New Brunswick needs workers most. The province is projected to have 23,100 job openings in health care and social assistance, 11,400 in educational services, and 12,800 in public administration over the next decadevi<\/sup>. Registered nurses alone account for 3,661 projected openings, while elementary school teachers account for nearly 2,000vii<\/sup>. Yet only about half of New Brunswick\u2019s 15-year-olds are currently performing at the level needed to realistically access these careers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Students performing at Level 2 can manage basic workplace expectations. They may be able to succeed in socially necessary and stable jobs in sectors like retail, hospitality, transportation, construction, and personal services. These roles are essential, but often offer less security, lower wages, and fewer opportunities for advancement. This could include positions such as receptionists, postal workers, retail associates, bus drivers, or support staff.<\/p>\n

Students below Level 2 face the greatest risk. These youth struggle with foundational literacy and numeracy and are likely to be restricted to routine, repetitive, and often physically demanding jobs with low pay and high precarity. This includes positions like cleaners, food service workers, farm labourers, or entry-level manual labour. These jobs are often the first to be disrupted by economic downturns, automation, or labour market instability.<\/p>\n

This is where the provincial vulnerability becomes most serious. New Brunswick expects young people entering the labour force for the first time to fill 82,300 of the province\u2019s 136,300 forecasted job openings \u2013 about 60% of total demandviii<\/sup>. But if a large share of those young people lack the skills required for the majority of openings, the province faces a dangerous mismatch: too many jobs requiring credentials and too many students unable to reach them.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Deeply vulnerable workforce<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The results from PISA suggest that the future of New Brunswick\u2019s workforce is deeply vulnerable.<\/strong> Literacy and numeracy levels are quietly shaping who will be able to participate fully in the labour market long before students ever graduate. When nearly one-third of students are performing below the minimum proficiency level, the consequences extend far beyond classrooms.<\/p>\n

These students are more likely to face unstable employment, lower wages, and long-term economic insecurity. At the same time, the province faces growing shortages in the very sectors it depends on most: healthcare, education, public administration, and skilled trades. New Brunswick cannot fill high-demand jobs if too many young people are being left without the foundational skills required to access them.<\/p>\n

This is not simply an education issue. It is a workforce issue, an economic issue, and a provincial sustainability issue. PISA levels are not just measuring student outcome; they are forecasting the strength and resilience of New Brunswick\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next in this series:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

These outcomes are alarming on their own, but they are not evenly distributed. PISA also shows that literacy and numeracy gaps are shaped by geography, gender, and socioeconomic status. Understanding these inequities is the next step.<\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

1<\/sup> Government of New Brunswick. (2025). New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook (2025 Edition)<\/em> (pp. 1\u201314).<\/p>\n

2<\/sup> What can students do in mathematics, reading and science?: PISA 2022 Results (Volume I)<\/em>. (2023, December 5). OECD. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/pisa-2022-results-volume-i_53f23881-en\/full-report\/what-can-students-do-in-mathematics-reading-and-science_6b45422e.html<\/a><\/p>\n

3<\/sup> What can students do in mathematics, reading and science?: PISA 2022 Results (Volume I)<\/em>. (2023, December 5). OECD. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/pisa-2022-results-volume-i_53f23881-en\/full-report\/what-can-students-do-in-mathematics-reading-and-science_6b45422e.html<\/a><\/p>\n

4<\/sup> What can students do in mathematics, reading and science?: PISA 2022 Results (Volume I)<\/em>. (2023, December 5). OECD. https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/pisa-2022-results-volume-i_53f23881-en\/full-report\/what-can-students-do-in-mathematics-reading-and-science_6b45422e.html<\/a><\/p>\n

5<\/sup> Tramonte, L., Emery, H., & Baker, S. (2025). ACA Presentation Summary Report<\/em>. University of New Brunswick.<\/p>\n

6<\/sup> Government of New Brunswick. (2025). New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook (2025 Edition)<\/em> (pp. 1\u201314).<\/p>\n

7<\/sup> Government of New Brunswick. (2025). New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook (2025 Edition)<\/em> (pp. 1\u201314).<\/p>\n

8<\/sup> Government of New Brunswick. (2025). New Brunswick Labour Market Outlook (2025 Edition)<\/em> (pp. 1\u201314).<\/p>\n

About the authors<\/h3>\n

Sydney Campbell<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Sydney<\/p>\n

Sydney Campbell is a current graduate student in the department of sociology at the University of New Brunswick. Her research lives in the sub-discipline of the sociology of sport, working directly on gendered experiences in sport and divisions of labour between men\u2019s and women\u2019s sports.<\/p>\n

She has experience using quantitative research methods and working directly with large-scale datasets to examine many different social phenomena inside and outside the world of athletics.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Herb Emery<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"herb-emery\"<\/p>\n

Dr. Herb Emery holds the Vaughan Chair in Regional Economics at UNB (since 2016), advising federal and provincial policymakers on Canadian economic development and regional disparities. His research integrates economic fundamentals with political, historical, and institutional factors shaping Canadian growth.<\/p>\n

Previously at the University of Calgary (1993\u20132016), he served as Full Professor in Economics, Research Director at The School of Public Policy, and Svare Professor in Health Economics. He also served as Managing Editor of Canadian Public Policy<\/em> from 2010 to 2015.<\/p>\n

Since 2019, Dr. Emery has led the JDI Roundtable on Manufacturing Competitiveness in New Brunswick, exploring policies to strengthen the province’s manufacturing export sector and capitalize on global supply chain shifts.<\/p>\n

The Vaughan Chair was established in the late 1980s through an endowment from the A. Murray Vaughan family to advance economic understanding and prosperity in New Brunswick and the Maritimes.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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